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面向未来 IEC市场战略局2019年热点话题综述

发布时间: 2019-03-04 09:27:34   审校:睿智  

人们普遍认为,我们生活在一个迅速变化的时代。如果赫拉克勒斯所言不虚,变化才是唯一的不变量,那么,各种组织必须对可能发生变革的领域做出预测,并做好相应的准备。

IEC(国际电工技术委员会)建立起市场战略局(MSB),目的是确定IEC工作领域的核心科技发展趋势和市场需求。MSB由行业高级领导和IEC官员组成,旨在为IEC的长期活动提供战略支持,并就一些可能发生风险的领域提出建议,也为IEC有未来发展趋势的领域提供建议。

为更好理解今年涌现的数个热点话题,e-tech采访了MSB秘书彼得·兰多特(Peter Lanctot)。

一、关于一种新型的弹性

如今,飓风、热浪和洪水等极端天气频频出现,频率越来越高。这对电力运输的影响是灾难性的,常造成大规模的停电,影响数以百万计的居民。因此,兰多特认为,“我们需要增加一种新型的公共事业弹性,以应对气候变化所带来的影响。”

“弹性”是指电力系统受灾后恢复工作的能力。拥有这种能力的电力系统可以规避极端天气对电网的破坏,将破坏降到最低。为增强电网的弹性,可以将电网切割成小回路,或安装智能开关,探测短路状况,阻断短路处电流,或重新布线以保证用户正常供电,等等。

据兰切特所言,解决电力系统的弹性问题将成为市场战略局成员的职责之一。“面对越来越恶劣的暴风和高温天气,传统的电网设备正面临威胁。因此,增强供电系统的极端天气弹性,势在必行。这可能也需要重新考核许多标准。

二、关于数字化转型

数字化转型是将数字技术整合到组织进程和组织能力中,包括人工智能、数据管理和智能系统等。鉴于其重要性,MSB将在2019年10月发布关于数字化转型时代的本体论题和语义网络白皮书。

按照Lanctot的说法,“人工智能作为下一阶段的创新方向,未来将对市场和技术带来冲击,这是MSB成员的共识。”对IEC而言,未来的工作包括制定可以减轻由算法导致的潜在偏差影响的标准。

.数据是数字化转型的一个重要要素,尤其是数据的采集与储存变得越来越容易,耗资也越来越低。但是,数字化转型也带来了许多问题,如数据的访问、管理、持有和保护等。兰切特表示,“数据使一切统统变得‘智能化’,出现了智能供电、智能城市、AAL、智能工厂等诸多智能系统。但是,这些系统中产生的数据,我们又该怎么利用呢?IEC积累雄厚,足以找出数据的访问、管理、持有和保护等问题之间的共性。借助数字化经济,IEC有能力帮助制定数据使用的标准。”

借助智能系统,MSB将检查人员、智能设备和智能机器的结合度。这种结合也可能包括数字孪生现象。根据Lanctot 所说,“数字孪生将成为商业的必需,并成为虚拟和现实两个世界中产品和服务的结合的基础。”

 

三、关于保证安全

从最初制定一系列能够实现安全传输和输送电力的标准开始,安全一直是IEC的核心内容之一。随着新科技的问世,IEC制定了确保用户用电安全的相关标准。

MSB已确定了两种技术,其中安全是一个需要进一步研究的领域:人工智能和物联网(IoT)。MSB提出了一系列问题,包括如何运用物联网设备维持目前的安全水平,在家用电器越来越自动化的今天如何保证其安全性,等等。“MSB将特别关注机器学习对运行安全的影响研究。”

与安全相关,网络安全对组织和个人带来的威胁与日俱增。这是MSB特别关注的另一个领域。兰切特认为,这是因为“更多的系统依赖数据驱动,因而更加脆弱,标准可以解决这一问题。”随着物联网设备的增加,黑客侵入、数据管理和隐私等安全问题也随之而来。因此,MSB还提出了升级物联网设备固件的问题,以及如何确保安全实施的问题。。

Lancto还表示,虽然IEC有足够的条件集聚各界相关人士,讨论安全问题的解决方案,但并非所有的参与者都有良好的初衷。“我们该如何控制参与诸如安全问题讨论的人员?而且一些与会人员不尽责,但他们还是掌握着维持安全系统正常运行的关键之匙。”引导利益相关方的参与和担负责任,将是IEC需要解决的问题之一。

同时,风险管理也被提出作为深入研究的潜在主题。Lanctot表示,监管机构关注的是实施安全特性的风险管理解决方案,但是,如何运用和整合风险管理方案以达到最佳效果,则是问题的关键所在。另外,与监管机构的合作也将成为一个更加关注的方面。“虽然每个国家都有自己的规章制度,但它们有一些共性。我认为,2019年,法规将成为MSB更加深入研究的主题之一。”

四、未来的趋势

服务业的机器人技术和电池驱动喷气式飞机将是MSB的议程中讨论的两个主题,并且很可能在未来几年成为热门领域。

 “一个反复出现的主题是机器人技术以及机器人将如何影响服务行业。我们已经在酒吧有了为我们制作饮品的机器人,但我们能否在游轮这种人更多、社交气氛也更浓的地方用上机器人?”机器人助手能否替代人类,胜任各种工作,还是一个尚未解决的问题。

虽然汽车和巴士的电气化已经起步,但是许多问题限制了电动飞机的发展,例如驱动电池的重量和体积要求如何得到满足,等等。然而,正如Lanctot指出的那样,“IEC在这一领域积累丰富,可以较为深入地研究下去,挖掘其中新的机遇。” Lanctot一直跟进电气行业活动,并观察到,“虽然电动飞机的想法还极具创新性,但很多公司和高校都已开始关注这一问题。” 想获悉更多的国内外标准信息,请访问中国标准信息服务网(<https://www.sacinfo.cn>)。

Looking to the future An overview of the Market Strategy Board’s hot topics for 2019

It is a generally accepted notion that we are living in times of rapid change. If, to paraphrase Heraclitus, change is the only constant, then organizations must anticipate areas of possible change and prepare themselves accordingly.

Within the IEC, the Market Strategy Board (MSB) has been set up to identify key technology trends and market needs in the areas of IEC work. Comprised of high-level industry leaders and IEC officers, the MSB offers strategies to help guide long-term IEC activities. It provides recommendations to the IEC on the areas that could trigger possible disruptions but also offer opportunities to the IEC in the future.

To better understand some of the key topics this year, e-tech spoke with Peter Lanctot who serves as Secretary to the board.

A new type of resilience

Hurricanes, heat waves and flooding are some of the extreme weather events occurring with increased frequency. The impact on the delivery of electricity can be devastating with blackouts affecting millions of people. As a result, Lanctot notes that "a new type of resiliency for utilities is needed to cope with the resulting effects of climate change".

Resiliency refers to the characteristics of an electrical system to recover its operations. It is the ability to avoid or minimize disruptions to the grid after an extreme weather happening. This can be achieved by, for example, splitting networks into smaller circuits or deploying intelligent switches that can detect a short circuit, block power flows to that area and reroute the electricity so users do not lose access.

According to Lanctot, MSB members will tackle the issue of resiliency for utilities. "Legacy grid equipment is at risk as we face more extreme storms and temperatures. It is necessary to make the electricity distribution systems more climate-resilient and this could include an overhaul of standards".

Digital transformation

Digital transformation is the integration of digital technologies into organizational processes and competencies. It encompasses artificial intelligence, data management and smart systems. Given its importance, the MSB will be publishing a White Paper in October 2019 on the topic of ontologies and the semantic web in the digital transformation age.

According to Lanctot, "MSB members agree that artificial intelligence is the next phase of innovation and will cause long term disruption to market and technology". For the IEC, areas of future work could include the development of standards that can mitigate the impact of potential biases resulting from algorithms.

Data is an important feature of the digital transformation, especially as it becomes increasingly easy and cheap to collect and store. However, this raises questions regarding data access, management, ownership and protection. Lanctot notes that "data allows for ‘smartness’ - such as smart energy, smart cities, AAL, smart manufacturing – but how do we use the data that come out of these systems? The IEC is well positioned to find a common ground on these questions. With the digitalization of the economy, the IEC can help to define a standard for the usage of data".

Within smart systems, the MSB will examine the integration of people, smart devices and machines. This can also include digital twinning which, according to Lanctot, "will become a business imperative and serve as the foundation for connecting products and services between the physical and virtual worlds".

Maintaining safety

Safety is one of the core remits of the IEC beginning with standards which have enabled the safe transmission and delivery of electricity. As new technologies are introduced, the IEC develops standards to ensure that users are safe.

The MSB has identified two technologies where safety is an area for further study: artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT). Questions raised within the MSB include how to maintain current levels of safety with IoT devices and how to guarantee the safety of home appliances as these increasingly rely on autonomous decision-making. "Specifically, the MSB would like to examine the impact of machine learning on functional safety".

Related to safety, cyber security is an increasing threat to organizations and individuals. This is another area of focus especially since, as Lanctot notes, "more systems are becoming data driven and therefore more vulnerable. Standards can provide solutions". With the massive proliferation of IoT devices, security questions regarding hacking, data management and privacy are emerging. The MSB has also raised the issue of upgrading firmware on IoT devices and how to ensure that it is implemented securely.

Lanctot also remarks that while the IEC is well-positioned to bring together the various stakeholders to discuss solutions for safety and security, not all participants may have benign intentions. "How do we control who joins the discussions on topics such as security? And, if some of the participants are not responsible, they will nonetheless retain the keys to the functioning of the security system". Guiding stakeholder participation and responsibility could be an area that the IEC will need to address.

Risk management has also been raised as a potential topic of further study. According to Lanctot, regulators are keen to implement risk management solutions for basic safety features. However, the question remains how it can be best used and integrated. Working with regulators will also become an area of increased focus. "Every country has its own rules and regulations but there are some commonalities. I think that in 2019, regulations will become one of the topics that the MSB looks at more deeply".

Future trends to follow

Robotics in the service industry and battery-propelled jet airplanes are two topics that will be on the MSB agenda for discussion and likely to become areas of interest in the next few years.

"A recurring topic is robotics and how it will affect the service industry. We already have robots making drinks for us at the bar, but what about in places with lots of people, like on cruise ships, where there is more of a social atmosphere?" Questions remain on whether robot assistants will be deemed sufficiently useful and an acceptable alternative to human personnel.

While the electrification of cars and buses has begun, many issues constrain the development of electronic airplanes such as the weight and space requirements of batteries that will be used for propulsion. However, as Lanctot notes, "it’s an area where the IEC has a lot of knowledge. It is something to look at a little further as a new opportunity for the IEC". He has been tracking industry activities and has observed that "companies and universities are starting to look into this issue even though it is a little outside of the box".


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